The debate about game development being a matter of "skill" versus "luck" arises occasionally as a hot topic among game devs. After reading "Characteristics of Games" by George Skaff Elias, Richard Garfield, and K. Robert Gutschera, I believe that the success of a game in the market is actually much closer to winning at a "chip-taking game." These types of free-for-all games require other people to vote for your success. If you've ever played a game of EDH or Avalon, then you've probably experienced someone trying to ensure that you would lose or at least that someone else would win.
This presents a challenge where a new game or product needs to gain enough votes from the market to find success, especially with something like a new social network where the network's value increases as it grows in size. The two books "Crossing the Chasm" and "The Cold Start Problem" both examine this issue and provide solutions. I've borrowed concepts from each book and combined them with ideas from conversations with other developers to present my working model of how I see the concept of the Innovation Adoption Curve and Network Effects relating to the success of games. I hope you enjoy it!